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Outlook reports that provide a general overview of the main prospects, forecasts and macroeconomic and financial trends for the year in question, as well as an assessment of their impact on the insurance business. This annual report is supplemented by quarterly updates in which the analysis of the most relevant events and developments of the period is considered.
Outlook reports that provide a general overview of the main prospects, forecasts and macroeconomic and financial trends for the year in question, as well as an assessment of their impact on the insurance business. This annual report is supplemented by quarterly updates in which the analysis of the most relevant events and developments of the period is considered.
2024 Economic and industry outlook: fourth-quarter forecast update
This report updates both the macroeconomic and insurance premium growth forecasts presented in the 2024 Economic and Industry Outlook report, in light of the outlook heading into the last quarter of the year. The economic environment presents an approach that anticipates a cyclical slowdown due to past fiscal and monetary policies and lagging economic effects, and calls for caution. Inflation is showing signs of easing, which in turn boosts purchasing power and suggests a return to more stable levels, although persistent geopolitical tensions are hampering central banks’ in terms of decision making. At industry level, the disparate performance of economies will influence the insurance sector. While the Eurozone faces challenges and weak growth prospects, Spain stands out with positive results. The US economy remains robust, although a moderate slowdown is projected. As far as emerging markets are concerned, a slight decline in overall industrial output is expected, due to the general performance of these economies.
2024 Economic and industry outlook: fourth-quarter forecast update (English)
2024 Economic and industry outlook: fourth-quarter forecast update (Spanish)
2024 Economic and industry outlook: perspectives for the second half
The current outlook offers a more balanced macroeconomic picture, although the slowdown in the global economy continues to pose certain divergences in terms of activity, inflation and monetary policies, in the face of a challenging geopolitical scenario. Thus, the report’s baseline scenario forecasts global economic growth of 3.0% for 2024 and 2.9% for 2025, while, in terms of prices, average inflation for these years is anticipated to be 4.5% and 3.5%, respectively. The balance of global risks is slightly biased to the downside, with geopolitical, governance and economic policy risks leading the balance and a potential transition to a less benign, though not recessionary, scenario. This economic backdrop will continue to have a positive impact on both insurance demand and industry profitability, aided by more moderate inflation and high financial income from high interest rates.
2024 Economic and industry outlook: perspectives for the second half (English)
2024 Economic and industry outlook: perspectives for the second half (Spanish)
2024 Economic and industry outlook: second-quarter forecast update
This report updates the macroeconomic and insurance premium growth forecasts presented in the 2024 Economic and Industry Outlook report in light of the outlook for the second quarter of the year. In this sense, the base scenario for this update continues to be framed within a path of controlled deceleration by central banks, economic fundamentals that support the slow but sustained fall in inflation, and a risk map that merits both extra caution and the possible decoupling towards less coordinated movements. For insurance activity, in general, positive real growth in business volume is anticipated, beyond the inertial growth of insurance premiums due to inflation.
2024 Economic and industry outlook: second-quarter forecast update (English)
2024 Economic and industry outlook: second-quarter forecast update (Spanish)
2024 Economic and industry outlook
The report forecasts that, moving into 2024, geopolitical tensions and other key risks will remain, while monetary policy will enter a phase of moderation pending validation of the effectiveness of the measures implemented. Thus, global economic performance is expected to be weaker than in 2023, with a gradual slowdown in growth that could bottom out in the final stretch of 2024 or early 2025. With regard to inflation, there is a renewed risk that, in the short term, inflation could pick up again as a result of geopolitical issues and less favorable base effects. Thus, global activity is expected to grow by around 2.3% and 2.6% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, while average inflation for these years is forecast at 4.4% and 3.3%, in each case. This environment presents an outlook for the insurance business of moderate growth in business volume, especially for those segments most closely linked to the economic cycle. Nevertheless, it is expected that the profitability of the insurance sector will improve as a result of upward revisions in insurance premiums and moderation in the growth of costs as price increases are brought under control.
2024 Economic and industry outlook (English)
2024 Economic and industry outlook (Spanish)
2023 Economic and industry outlook: fourth quarter perspectives
The report highlights that the global economic growth buffers have continued to be, on the one hand, private consumption, and, on the other, sources of fiscal support. Inflation’s downward trajectory has continued to consolidate with the normalization of supply chains, base effects in energy prices and some movement towards a broader deceleration in the basket components. As a result, the global monetary tightening cycle has shifted to a more balanced situation between the level of economic activity and price dynamics, albeit subject to an increasingly challenging and stressed geopolitical environment. This context poses a scenario of lower growth for the insurance business, which will affect its more cyclical and credit-linked lines of business, although an improvement in profitability is expected as insurance premium adjustments materialize to adapt them to inflation, and as cost growth moderates and financial income remains supported by interest rate hikes.
2023 Economic and industry outlook: fourth quarter perspectives (English)
2023 Economic and industry outlook: fourth quarter perspectives (Spanish)
2023 Economic and industry outlook: third quarter perspectives
Forecasts point to weaker overall economic growth than anticipated a quarter ago. On the inflation side, there has been a rapid moderation of the supply components, although the strength of the services sector has allowed core inflation readings to consolidate on a more rigid downward path, reverting more smoothly to wages. The baseline scenario maintains an environment of global stagflation, with growth continuing at rates below potential, particularly in developed markets. This context could translate into lower growth in the more cyclical lines of insurance business, as well as the need to control costs in the face of persistent inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, the higher levels of interest rates continue to help the development of the Life savings and annuities business, although the inversion of the slope of interest rate curves in many markets has become more pronounced, making the management of products with interest rate guarantees in the medium and long term somewhat more complex.
2023 Economic and industry outlook: third quarter perspectives (English)
2023 Economic and industry outlook: third quarter perspectives (Spanish)
2023 Economic and industry outlook: second quarter perspectives
In a context in which the world has lost capacity for long-term growth, it can be seen, however, that the world´s economy has improved its prospects for 2023 and 2024 with respect to what was anticipated in the previous quarter, based on a better performance and a greater contribution from all the world’s economic regions. Thus, the risk of recession emanating from a large part of the developed economies has eased, underpinning the foundations for growth that, in general terms, is expected to be more benign thanks to the acceleration of economic activity in the short term. Despite this, and given the context of uncertainty, this moderate optimism remains insufficient to dismiss the risks of a “hard landing” contemplated over the course of 2022, compounded by recent signs of financial instability coming from the banking sector on both sides of the Atlantic. In this context, the insurance industry will be able to continue to benefit not only from the environment of higher interest rates and falling inflation, but also from the positive effect on insurance demand resulting from stronger economic activity in 2023.
2023 Economic and industry outlook: second quarter perspectives (English)
2023 Economic and industry outlook: second quarter perspectives (Spanish)
2023 Economic and industry outlook
After a year of better-than-anticipated growth, the global economy is slowing down. The report forecasts global economic growth of around 2.0% for 2023 and 2.7% for 2024. This is a stagflation scenario, which would be followed by a period of low-intensity recovery. On the monetary policy side, terminal interest rates are expected to rise, following the increased tightening bias revealed by the main central banks during the second part of 2022, and on the fiscal policy side, a lower expansionary path gradually approaching neutral territory is expected. The global economic slowdown continues to pose a challenging outlook for the insurance industry’s business and profitability. The combined effects of monetary and fiscal policy will pose a short-term drag on insurance demand growth. However, the higher interest rate environment and declining inflation may help to offset the loss of profitability suffered by the insurance industry in the previous year and provide an important stimulus for the savings-linked life insurance segment.
2023 Economic and industry outlook (English)
2023 Economic and industry outlook (Spanish)
2022 Economic and industry outlook: fourth quarter perspectives
The report presents a view in which global economic activity growth is in a phase of exhaustion, accompanied by tighter financial conditions, as well as more entrenched and persistent inflation. In this context, global GDP growth in 2022 and 2023 is forecast to be 3.2% and 2.7%, respectively, maintaining the view of previous reports of a short to medium-term scenario of global stagflation, with some countries briefly slipping into recession, but not reaching a global downturn. Thus, an economic environment characterized by aggressive monetary policy in the coming months and recession in the world’s major economies is increasingly likely. This will have a negative impact on insurance markets, which will face a complex outlook.
2022 Economic and industry outlook: fourth quarter perspectives (English)
2022 Economic and industry outlook: fourth quarter perspectives (Spanish)
2022 Economic and industry outlook: third quarter perspectives
Continuing tensions in supply chains, the complex geopolitical factor and central banks’ tightening of monetary policies are, among other elements, continuing to drive the global economy toward a stagflation scenario where the chances of a recession are increasing. Thus, a shift in the forecast range can be observed toward a scenario of declining global activity (3.0% and 2.7% in 2022 and 2023, compared to 3.6% and 3.6% in the previous report) and rising inflation, with a global deterioration toward levels of economic stagnation, albeit with regional divergences. As such, the tightening of monetary policy will dampen aggregate demand, cooling the economy in an environment of higher than expected and longer-lasting inflation, which will in turn erode household purchasing power and business margins, thereby negatively impacting the development and profitability of the insurance business and putting pressure on the pricing of insurance products.
2022 Economic and industry outlook: third quarter perspectives (English)
2022 Economic and industry outlook: third quarter perspectives (Spanish)
2022 Economic and industry outlook: second quarter perspectives
Following the progress made in controlling the Covid-19 pandemic, the global economy was showing positive, albeit moderate, growth rates at the beginning of 2022. However, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the outlook for global growth forecasts has been significantly affected and has deteriorated notably. Global commodity prices have worsened, mainly in energy, oil derivatives and food, raising the risk of economic disruption, albeit with some divergence by region. This will imply greater risks to productive capacity and growth, and will increase the risk of inflation. Thus, according to the baseline scenario considered in the report, global GDP growth is expected to be 3.6% in 2022 and 2023, with inflation (average for the last quarter of the year) standing at 6.8% and 4.1% for 2022 and 2023, respectively. This new environment is also casting a shadow over the outlook for business development and profitability for the insurance sector in 2022, in an environment where inflation is eroding business margins and household purchasing power, which will make it difficult to pass on the increase in claims costs to insurance prices.
2022 Economic and industry outlook: second quarter perspectives (English)
2022 Economic and industry outlook: second quarter perspectives (Spanish)
2022 Economic and industry outlook
After an acceleration in the first half of 2021, the global economy slowed due to higher commodity and energy prices, supply chain problems, congested demand for consumer goods to the detriment of services, as well as uncertainty caused by the return to social distancing measures in the face of the new variant of Covid-19. In addition, central banks in emerging countries have begun to tighten monetary policy to control inflation, while in developed markets inflation remains stable in order to continue driving the economic recovery, although it already anticipates a change in trend. The report expects the global economy to head for slower growth than in 2021, around 4.8% in 2022 and 3.6% in 2023, with developed markets taking the lead in closing the output gap over the next few years. Moreover, despite the global economic slowdown and increased uncertainty, increased risk aversion on the part of economic agents as a result of the pandemic will be a major stimulus to demand for insurance, which continues to pose a positive outlook in 2022 for the development of the sector. In addition, the negative effects of the economic reopening on the loss ratio of some lines will tend to be corrected, so the outlook for the profitability of insurance companies continues to be favorable, despite the effect that the rebound in inflation may have in the short term.
2022 Economic and industry outlook (English)
2022 Economic and industry outlook (Spanish)
2022 Economic and industry outlook (English) (ePub)
2022 Economic and industry outlook (Spanish) (ePub)
2021 Economic and industry outlook: fourth quarter perspectives
This report revises global economic growth forecasts downward as a result of more persistent inflation affecting income and consumption; the dual nature of the recovery, with emerging markets still weighed down by their difficult pandemic situation and vaccination problems; and also the effects of reduced Chinese demand stemming from lower activity. In this context, the balance of risks is less tilted to the downside thanks to the remission of the pandemic, but there are still many and very severe threats to the recovery. In this environment, the outlook for insurance markets worldwide is improving, although many economies will have to wait until 2022 or even longer to recover their pre-crisis level, so the recovery of their insurance markets may be uneven. In addition, inflationary pressures may reduce profitability and put pressure on insurance prices if the situation becomes persistent.
2021 Economic and industry outlook: fourth quarter perspectives (English)
2021 Economic and industry outlook: fourth quarter perspectives (Spanish)
2021 Economic and industry outlook: third quarter perspectives
The world continues on its gradual path of recovery, strongly supported by the services sector and with an unprecedented share of global growth in developed countries. Thus, the global economy is expected to grow by around 6% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022. This growth is rooted in improved global mobility in the face of Covid-19, the revival of China’s consumption, demand for services in developed markets, and monetary and financial momentum in the developed world. Emerging countries, however, will see more meager growth and their contribution to growth will be lower given the epidemiological situation and the limited margin for expansionary economic policy. Overall growth will also have a high nominal component, but the upturn in inflation will be transitory. On the other hand, the prospects for a return to economic growth are helping insurance markets to recover. Some emerging economies are experiencing a rebound in inflation and have exhausted their fiscal capacity, forcing them to reverse some of the measures adopted, which will delay their recovery. However, the rise in interest rates in these economies is creating a favorable environment for the marketing of life savings products, which have suffered the most from the crisis.
2021 Economic and industry outlook: third quarter perspectives (English)
2021 Economic and industry outlook: third quarter perspectives (Spanish)
2021 Economic and industry outlook: second quarter perspectives
The report takes stock of the state of the global economy one year after the pandemic was declared. The world remains mired in a deep crisis, and employment and wealth levels are not expected to recover lost ground until at least the end of 2022. The speed of the exit will depend on the continuity of various stimuli, the effectiveness of vaccination programs and the underlying imbalances from which each of the economies started out. As such, the recovery will be asymmetrical and lacking in synchronicity. However, the return to global economic growth in 2021 is helping to improve the outlook for insurance markets, which have proven to be solvent and resilient. Nevertheless, with some notable exceptions, the anticipated partial and uneven economic recovery will tend to weigh on the development of the insurance sector in the various markets.
2021 Economic and industry outlook: second quarter perspectives (English)
2021 Economic and industry outlook: second quarter perspectives (Spanish)
2021 Economic and industry outlook
The report sets out the outlook for global economic growth in the coming years following the impact of the Covid-19 crisis and following profound changes in the economic context. The world economy is moving toward a new normality, currently going through the recovery phase in a scenario where vaccines are acting as a positive catalyst reducing long-term risks, but where there is still the possibility of a further contraction given the outbreaks of the virus. Thus, the world economy is expected to grow by around 4.5% during 2021-2022, strongly supported by the performance of developed markets that will capitalize on the double monetary and fiscal boost. Emerging countries will also recover, although at a slower pace. On the other hand, unlike other activities, the insurance sector has shown some resilience in the current situation, thanks to the good performance of some business lines that are less vulnerable to the current context. However, the fall in activity is negatively affecting the segments most closely linked to the economic cycle, while accommodating monetary policies and the movement towards liquidity positions by families and companies is having the same effect in the insurance business linked to savings, particularly in developed markets. The economic recovery expected in 2021 may lead to a recovery of the ground lost by the sector, especially in emerging countries, although this will be uneven across markets and business lines.
2021 Economic and industry outlook (English)
2021 Economic and industry outlook (Spanish)
2021 Economic and industry outlook (English) (ePub)
2021 Economic and industry outlook (Spanish) (ePub)
2020 Economic and Industry Outlook: Fourth Quarter Perspectives
In the context of the sharp fall in the dynamics of global activity, resulting from a totally different shock than those that caused the most recent economic crises, this report highlights that the global economy is in a stage of stabilization and eventual recovery, not extent of risks that will be exacerbated by the very dynamic of the Covid-19 pandemic. In this framework, the report provides a revision of the 2020 economic growth expectations, with a relative improvement, but a certain deterioration next year, which will have tenuous and asymmetric growth on a global scale. This relative recovery, which will be slow, subject to great uncertainty as a result of new outbreaks of the illness, and uneven depending on the country and sector, will negatively affect the insurance industry, but to a lesser extent that other sectors that are more vulnerable to the risks of the health crisis caused by the pandemic.
2020 Economic and Industry Outlook: Fourth Quarter Perspectives (English)
2020 Economic and Industry Outlook: Fourth Quarter Perspectives (Spanish)
2020 Economic and Industry Outlook: Third Quarter Perspectives
This report updates the global macroeconomic scenarios based on the most recent developments of the epidemiological situation. The information shows a very noticeable contraction of global economic activity in the first half of 2020, although the leading information for the third quarter points to certain stabilization. The relaxing of control measures implemented for the Covid-19 pandemic, along with the measures activated in the monetary and fiscal policy arena, are making it possible to reawaken the demand contained in the first half of the year, thus pushing toward a slow return to normality of real and nominal values. This economic environment will have important effects on the insurance sector, which depends in large part on the adequate functioning of financial markets and general economic performance. For a more in-depth analysis of the potential effect on insurance demand, the report gives an updated revision of the health and economic crises experienced in recent decades.
2020 Economic and Industry Outlook: Third Quarter Perspectives (English)
2020 Economic and Industry Outlook: Third Quarter Perspectives (Spanish)
2020 Economic and Industry Outlook: Second Quarter Perspectives
The emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic has radically altered the prospects for world growth and insurance markets. The contagion process, together with the imposed suppression measures, produces demand, supply and financial effects that will cause a global recession of close to -3% of GDP in the best of cases, with the Eurozone as the region where the effect may be greater and Latin America where the risk of becoming a depression is more relevant given its vulnerabilities. In our base scenario, however, the measures taken, and the nature of the virus will give way to a recovery during 2021 that we also expect will translate into consumption and demand for financial services in general.
2020 Economic and Industry Outlook: Second Quarter Perspectives (English)
2020 Economic and Industry Outlook: Second Quarter Perspectives (Spanish)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2020
2020 is expected to be the year in which global economic growth stabilizes at low levels, similar to 2019, taking steps towards convergence, with rates similar to those recorded in the last five-year period, close to global potential. Differential contributions will come from emerging countries, thanks to more benign financial conditions and improved exchange terms primarily for agricultural raw materials. Developed markets will avoid greater deceleration thanks to the reactivation of very lax monetary policies, although their convenience at this point in the cycle is open for debate. Growth will be tenuous and above all fragile, given the known and unknown risks looming over the global panorama, specifically those coming from financial imbalances and the recent developments in global geopolitics.
The path to deceleration in which the global economy is currently immersed is affecting the development of the insurance business, specifically the Non-Life and Life Protection segments, which are slowing down on an aggregate level. The generalized application of accommodative monetary policies are helping to stop this trend and could contribute to reverting the situation, but they have locked interest rates at absolute low levels in developed countries and relative low levels in emerging countries, compared to levels reached in previous years. This situation, along with the deceleration of economic growth, limits the development of the traditional Life Savings and Annuity businesses. However, the positive behavior of stock markets constitutes a stimulus for Life insurance products in which the policyholder bears the investment risk, in those countries in which these types of products have reached a significant weight.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2020 (English)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2020 (Spanish)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2020 (English) (ePub)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2020 (Spanish) (ePub)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019: Fourth Quarter Perspectives
We find ourselves in a situation in which factors like the trade war and other crises are weighing on global economies, creating a situation in which one additional shock could push the balance toward recession, although a situation like this is still not included in the base scenario considered in the report. However, there are various indicators of a worldwide recession, and they cannot be ignored. In this situation, the ability to turn a deceleration around with the usual monetary and fiscal levers could be difficult. This situation is one of global vulnerability, which, despite not constituting a central scenario, has an ever-increasing possibility of recession, instruments to face it that are increasingly more limited, and social and economic consequences that are increasingly more uncertain.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019: Fourth Quarter Perspectives (English)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019: Fourth Quarter Perspectives (Spanish)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019: Third Quarter Perspectives
The report highlights the unequivocal signs of change in the economic cycle, the shift in global monetary policy, and its effect on flows, emerging currencies and exchange rates. The base scenario has slightly stressed from the effects of the trade war, but projected growth for 2019 overall continues to pivot around the global potential (3.3 percent). Likewise, the report highlights that the slowdown in global economic activity will wind up transferring to the insurance premium dynamic. More accommodating monetary policy measures could soften the impact on the insurance business, although they will negatively affect the Life savings and Annuities products.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019: Third Quarter Perspectives (English)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019: Third Quarter Perspectives (Spanish)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019: Second Quarter Perspectives
Economic growth consolidates the change of cycle, foreseeing rates of growth closer to the global potential that are ultimately, in line with the theory of secular stagnation, more meager than in the previous decade. Lower growth in the short-term seems to be rooted in the effects of the deceleration in Europe, the lower impetus of activity in China, and the direct and indirect effects of the rising import tariffs led by the United States. This outlook has led to a new twist in global monetary and fiscal policy with the aim of trying to maintain economic activity levels.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019: Second Quarter Perspectives (English)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019: Second Quarter Perspectives (Spanish)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019
The report emphasizes the fact that the close of 2018 marks the beginning of the path of gradual deceleration that has been anticipated since the end of 2017. This economic slowdown (which will imply global growth close to 3.3 percent for 2019) will include three characteristics: it will be increasingly asynchronous and fragile; it will have less intense activity and inflation; and it will develop in less favorable and divergent financial conditions. This economic context will continue to favor the insurance market, but the deceleration of the key economies and the ending of the cycle could begin to impact premium growth in the insurance market, especially in the Non-Life and Life Protection segments, given their strong connection to the behavior of the economic cycle.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019 (English)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019 (Spanish)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019 (English) (ePub)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2019 (Spanish) (ePub)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018: Fourth Quarter Perspectives
Various factors seem to crystalize the signs that have been visible since the beginning of the year announcing the change in cycle of the global economy led by the United States economy. Starting in 2019, global growth will reduce, giving way to a central soft-landing scenario in which the global GDP will stand close to potential. Developed and emerging countries will contribute to this growth similarly (though less than before), and there will be a loss of coordination of monetary policy on a global level. Our central scenario has strong downside risks, primarily originating in USA and China.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018: Fourth Quarter Perspectives (English)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018: Fourth Quarter Perspectives (Spanish)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018: Third Quarter Perspectives
Although global activity maintained its cyclical momentum in the second and part of the third quarter, it is continuously less synchronous, more fragile and more dependent on stimuli from the US. US trade, economic and international policies have become a source of shocks, with global repercussions in the appreciation of the USD, volatility of the Brent and global activity and trade expectations. Although so far this has not led to a risk event, the accumulation of global imbalances, the cycle itself reaching its end, and the US administration’s ability to provoke volatility on all levels on a global scale, make caution necessary. The current base scenario is an organized cyclical adjustment, though recently the probability of a more severe adjustment is growing.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018: Third Quarter Perspectives (English)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018: Third Quarter Perspectives (Spanish)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018: Second Quarter Perspectives
It is noteworthy that global growth has maintained its momentum during the first quarter, ratifying expectations for growth very similar to 2017, both in speed and in composition. This growth will continue, backed by strong fiscal and monetary demand stimuli in both regions. Additionally, the United States fiscal policy, the maintenance of lax monetary policies at a global level and the strong inertia of spending and investment dynamics will be guarantors of this.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018: Second Quarter Perspectives (English)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018: Second Quarter Perspectives (Spanish)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018
This report offers a general perspective of the key macroeconomic and financial trends for 2018, both globally and in the key economies, as well as an assessment regarding its interconnection with and impact on insurance activity. The global economy could grow 3.7 percent this year, one tenth more than in 2017, and above the expectations from 12 months ago. However, global economic activity also shows signs of stabilization, anticipating that maybe we are leading up to a change in cycle, which will materialize towards the end of 2019. In the case of the insurance industry, the worldwide growth forecast for 2018 anticipates a positive impact on the development of the global insurance market, which will be especially notable in emerging economies.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018 (English)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018 (Spanish)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018 (English) (ePub)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2018 (Spanish) (ePub)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2017: Fourth Quarter Outlook
In this report the current global economic situation is reviewed, focusing on the countries that comprise MAPFRE’s market. We update activity, price and financial variable outlook, as well as the balance of risks and vulnerabilities the global economy is facing. This report highlights the development of global economic politics, with a special emphasis on the consequences for the global economy and the insurance market of the expected withdrawal of liquidity associated with the standardization of large central banks’ balance sheets.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2017: Fourth Quarter Outlook (English)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2017: Fourth Quarter Outlook (Spanish)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2017: Third Quarter Outlook
This document offers MAPFRE Economics vision on the expected economic and sector outlook for 2017 / 2018. The issue focuses on the normalization process of global monetary policies, policy and political developments in the USA and the real side impact of politics in Europe and Latin America. In addition, the report also reviews how global imbalances evolve as to cast and render them into our forecasts. Forecast figures of this report have been updated as of July 17th 2017.
Economic and Industry Outlook 2017: Third Quarter Outlook (English)
Economic and Industry Outlook 2017: Third Quarter Outlook (Spanish)
Economic and Sector Outlook 2017: Second Quarter Outlook
The strong economic pulse in the first quarter of 2017 foresees a light acceleration in global growth for this year, not without certain political and economic uncertainties, which are analyzed in this quarterly review. This report updates the status of the economic overview and its influence on the insurance market. The global insurance industry is noting acceleration in business, both in Life and Non-Life, with a contribution from emerging countries above what was initially expected. This growth is expected to continue throughout 2017-2018, both in developed and emerging markets, the latter leading the path to growth.
Economic and Sector Outlook 2017: Second Quarter Outlook (English)
Economic and Sector Outlook 2017: Second Quarter Outlook (Spanish)
2017 Economic and Sector Outlook
Situational report prepared by MAPFRE Economics offering a general view of the key financial and macroeconomic trends for 2017, as well as an assessment of their interconnection and impact on insurance activity. The first part of the report analyzes the global economic environment, characterizing it as “secular stagnation” (low level of economic activity, low inflation, and low interest rates). This conceptual framework is the starting point to evaluate the loss of monetary policy effectiveness, and the growing need to more active use of fiscal policy as a way of injecting new stimulus into economic activity. The second part of the report offers an analysis of the mechanisms through which the global economic activity will affect the insurance sector. A general conceptual framework is included, as well as a quantitative analysis that foresees an acceleration in the insurance business throughout 2017-2018 both in developing and emerging markets, the latter leading the path toward growth. Further, it provides a perspective on the major regulatory trends that can affect the insurance sector in 2017.