Positive outlook for the insurance industry, contingent on international conditions

MAPFRE’s economic research service, MAPFRE Economics, has released its annual report, Economic and Sectoral Outlook 2025, outlining its projections for macroeconomic activity and the insurance industry. The outlook for this year is positive, driven by moderating inflation and the easing of monetary policies toward less restrictive levels in major economies. As a result, global economic growth is projected to reach 3.1% in 2025, with a slight slowdown to 3.0% in 2026.

This favorable macroeconomic environment is expected to benefit the real economy, particularly the insurance industry, thanks to favorable financing conditions, a recovery in credit, a slowdown in the rising cost of living in a large number of global economies, and other factors.

MAPFRE Economics anticipates growth rates for the insurance sector this year of 4.5% in Life insurance and 4.8% in Non-Life insurance, measured by the total volume of premiums. This represents a slight deceleration compared to 2024, when Non-Life premiums grew by 4.3% and Life by 5.3%. The trend is expected to continue into 2026, with Non-Life premiums growing by 4.1% and Life premiums by 4.4%, according to MAPFRE’s research service projections.

“Despite the uncertainty, economic growth and interest rate levels will globally support the development of the insurance activity, with strong prospects for profitability thanks to improved financial performance in investment portfolios,” says Ricardo González, Director of Analysis, Sectoral Studies, and Regulation at MAPFRE Economics.

However, the research service also highlights a factor that could destabilize insurance industry performance, as with many other industries: international disputes. This is the primary reason for the downward revisions in the projections for the next two years.

“The risks affecting the economic outlook have intensified due to geopolitical uncertainty and the potential for a trade war,” warns Ricardo González. The new tariffs introduced by the U.S. federal administration could impact private consumption, investment, exchange rates, inflation, and other factors, potentially disrupting global supply chains and energy prices. All of this could undermine both economic growth and insurance industry performance.

For the period 2025-2026, MAPFRE Economics projects global growth of 4.6% for the insurance industry. Regionally, North America will be the primary driver of global growth, both in Life and Non-Life insurance.

In Life insurance, North America is expected to contribute 1.7 percentage points to this growth, followed by China with 1.1 points, and developed Asia plus Oceania with 1 point. The European Union and the United Kingdom will contribute 0.8 points, emerging Asia (excluding China) 0.55 points, and Latin America 0.4 points.

In Non-Life insurance, North America's contribution to global growth is even more significant, with an estimated 2.7 percentage points, compared to China’s 0.6 points, 0.4 points from Europe and the UK, 0.4 points from developed Asia and Oceania, and 0.3 points from Latin America.

In Spain, MAPFRE Economics expects growth of 2.4% in 2025, outperforming the European average. This strong economic performance, driven by private consumption, a strong labor market, and the recovery of credit to the private sector, alongside a declining interest rate environment, will continue to mainly boost the Non-Life segment, which saw a robust 7.8% growth last year. In 2025, MAPFRE’s economic research service projects a 5.1% increase in premiums for this segment, with a 4.4% growth in 2026.

You can read the full report here.

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