Coronavirus: financial analysis XXIX

MAPFRE Economics forecasts a reduced contraction of the global economy, of up to 4.4%, and warns about debt increases

COVID-19 has generated an unprecedented shock for the global economy that has resulted in an abrupt drop in activity levels. MAPFRE Economics expects a correction in the world economy’s base scenario of around 4.4%, with significant divergences between regions. Central bank support and fiscal stimuli have staved off a more serious economic collapse, resulting in a slightly improved forecast compared to the start of the pandemic (a fall of 4.9% had been predicted in the previous quarter).

Spain: one of the developed countries with the lowest fiscal stimulus programs to combat the pandemic

Governments around the world have been forced into launching massive fiscal programs to sustain their economies in the face of the devastating socio-economic impact brought on by the pandemic. Some governments have gone much further in their stimulus policies than others. MAPFRE Economics’ latest Outlook report compares the fiscal measures implemented by each government, and the differences are considerable.

A global debt crisis is one of the main threats to the post-COVID global economy

The latest MAPFRE Economics Outlook report identifies six major vulnerabilities and risks to the global economy during the current situation. A global debt crisis, geopolitical tensions and frictions in global governance are the three most likely risks according to MAPFRE Economics, with each of these risks exacerbating over the last quarter.

Aviation: a business driver for MAPFRE Global Risks in Central America

José María Romero, CEO of MAPFRE’s Central America and Dominican Republic Subregion, explains the key aspects of MAPFRE Global Risks’ business in the region. He emphasizes the solid performance of the new Aviation business, which is delivering good results in Guatemala, Costa Rica and Panama and accounts for some 68% of total premiums.

The Boyar Value Group’s Latest Quarterly Newsletter

The Boyar Value Group, with whom MAPFRE has partnered in the United States, has just published its quarterly client newsletter. This quarter’s missive discusses how the upcoming US presidential election could mark a return to value investing and also looks at historical equity returns based on which party controls all three branches of government (as well as returns during periods of shared government), among other subjects.