What do social discontent and state responses in Europe and Asia have in common?

The 18th NATO Operations Research and Analysis Conference was held in Malaga from November 4 to 6, gathering experts from various countries to discuss how advanced research and analysis can be applied to strategic decision-making in complex environments. Under the theme “Collaboration to enable military advantage in an unstable world,” the conference examined how operational analysis and Big Data can improve Member States’ resilience and adaptability when it comes to addressing the challenges emerging in areas like cybersecurity, sustainability, and multidomain operations. The panels covered topics such as emerging technologies and logistics simulation, and a session on Big Data highlighted the importance of this technology in analyzing social dynamics and its potential for predicting government responses.

During the Big Data session, Gonzalo de Cadenas-Santiago, Deputy General Manager of MAPFRE Economics, gave his presentation “An Empirical Assessment of Social Unrest Dynamics and State Response in Eurasian Countries.” His presentation focused on analyzing social discontent and government responses in Eurasia, a study which highlights the similarities to patterns seen in Europe and Asia in terms of social volatility and state responses. This topic is particularly relevant given the recent events in Armenia and Azerbaijan a few months ago, as well as the more recent developments in Moldova and Georgia.

Using the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT), Cadenas-Santiago and his colleagues developed an analytical framework that uses real-time indices to monitor the different stages of social psychosocial dynamics (vindication, protest, and conflict). By measuring state responses ranging from repression to cooperation, this framework helps them understand the sensitivity and interrelationship of different psychosocial states in different countries, as well as their ability to anticipate them.  The study’s analysis reveals significant volatility in the Euro-Asian regions, where social reactivity tends to peak in the early stages of unrest, but declines as the situation deteriorates. In addition, state responses are often initially repressive, but become more cooperative as the conflict progresses. This shift is attributed to the limitations of their enforcement capabilities.

The study also highlights that western and central Eurasia are particularly vulnerable to escalating conflicts and face significant challenges in their state enforcement capabilities, which can result in unrest spreading to neighboring countries. When comparing Eurasia with the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region, it was observed that while the dynamics of volatility, social reactivity, and state response are similar, they are less intense. This research by MAPFRE Economics offers valuable insights into understanding social stability and state resilience in geopolitically sensitive regions. 

The tool is currently used by MAPFRE Economics to predictively monitor social protests and crises in 60 countries.